ISLAMABAD: The Central Power Purchasing Agency–Guaranteed (CPPA-G) has developed five power purchase price (PPP) scenarios for calendar year 2026, reflecting varying assumptions of electricity demand, fuel prices, hydrology, and exchange rates. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) will hold a public hearing on November 18, 2025, to review CPPA-G’s petition.
The proposed PPP projections range from Rs 25.69 to Rs 26.53 per unit, with Scenario 1 estimating Rs 25.95 per unit and Scenario 4 peaking at Rs 26.20 per unit. These variations stem from different forecasts of exchange rate parity (Rs 280–330 per USD), fuel prices, and power demand growth.
All scenarios assume US inflation at 2.3%, Pakistan inflation at 7.74%, KIBOR at 11%, LIBOR/SOFR at 4.47%, NTDC losses at 2.6%, and transmission charges of Rs 300/kW/month.
Under the base case (Scenario 1), CPPA-G projects sales of 125,822 GWh at a total cost of Rs 999.47 billion, with fuel costs averaging Rs 7.94 per unit and capacity charges of Rs 15.69 per unit, resulting in a total PPP of Rs 25.95 per unit after including transmission and market operator fees.
Scenario 2—based on an exchange rate of Rs 300 per USD—projects a PPP of Rs 26.53 per unit, while Scenario 5, assuming lower fuel prices, shows the lowest cost at Rs 25.69 per unit.
CPPA-G stated that the scenarios were developed through detailed sensitivity analyses to support NEPRA in setting monthly PPP reference rates for 2026. It clarified that the figures are indicative and subject to changes in assumptions such as commissioning schedules, inflation, demand forecasts, and fuel costs.
The agency further emphasized that the projections exclude differential adjustments that may later be allowed or disallowed. NEPRA will use these forecasts, along with its own assessment, to determine the final PPP references for 2026.
Story by Mushtaq Ghumman
